The value of Ordina’s stock on the reference date was €1,418, which appears to be an outlier compared to the months before and after. The average value in the preceding 24 months was €1,74 and is a more justified baseline to compare valuations to.
The valuation in chapter 8 indicated the value of Ordina on a stand-alone basis derived from probability weighted scenarios. This is the value shareholders may expect when Ordina individually follows its current track. The calculated value per share is €2,22.
In a transactional context the weighted valuation of the same scenarios, but including synergies, points at a per share value of €2,66. But the market approach (CTA) clarifies that buyers will not fully recognize the forecasted synergies and that the price per share that may be expected in a transaction would not exceed €2,35. As the market is a better indicator of the price that Ordina shareholders may expect when the firm is sold, the latter value should be leading for the supervisory board in their decision making about bids from strategic buyers.
Compared to the average market price of €1,74 per share at the valuation date, €2,35 would indicate a substantial premium of 35% above current share pricing. This is in line with the average premium of 30%69 that is paid in transactions according to research.
Compared to the stand-alone value, the expected price in a transaction delivers a surplus value of 6%.